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Breaking News:

NHC Atlantic Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) on September 16, 2019 at 5:26 am

    000 ABNT20 KNHC 160526 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface trough. Little, if any, development of this system is expected before it moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast tonight or Tuesday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall along portions of Texas coast later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

  • Hurricane Humberto Graphics
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) on September 16, 2019 at 2:38 am

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 02:38:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:24:42 GMT

  • Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 14
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) on September 16, 2019 at 2:37 am

    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 147 WTNT44 KNHC 160237 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 700 mb flight-level wind data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Humberto indicate that the system's intensity is now 65 kt. This is also supported by Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and it makes the cyclone the third hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic season. Humberto's cloud pattern has continued to gradually become better organized, with increasing coverage and intensity of deep convection, and pronounced upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The hurricane is expected to traverse warm Gulf Stream waters for the next several days, but the dynamical models forecast a significant increase in southwesterly vertical shear through 72 hours. In spite of the latter unfavorable factor, the numerical guidance generally shows intensification. This is likely at least partially due to some baroclinic forcing caused by a strong mid-latitude trough to the north and northeast of Humberto. The official forecast is a blend of the latest simple and corrected consensus models and is very similar to the previous one. Humberto continues to move very slowly and the latest aircraft and satellite center fixes indicate that the motion is now northeastward or 040/3 kt. The hurricane has just rounded the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone and steering currents are likely to remain weak for the next couple of days. An east-northeastward track with a very gradual increase in forward speed is expected for much of the period while Humberto moves between the subtropical high and stronger westerlies associated with the trough to the north. The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one in 4-5 days, but not as slow as the latest ECMWF and GFS global model runs. Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 29.4N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 29.8N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 30.1N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 30.8N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 31.8N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 35.0N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 39.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasc

  • Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) on September 16, 2019 at 2:37 am

    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 160237 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 49(79) 1(80) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 2(45) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

  • Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 14
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) on September 16, 2019 at 2:36 am

    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 77.6W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 77.6 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Monday morning, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed over the next 3 days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the northwest Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches. Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasc